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No. 752: Common and Country Specific Economic Uncertainty

Haroon Mumtaz , Queen Mary University of London
Konstantinos Theodoridis , Bank of England

August 13, 2015

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Abstract

We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more important over the last decade. Simulations from a two-country DSGE model featuring Epstein Zin preferences suggest that increased globalisation and trade openness may be the driving force behind the increased cross-country correlation in volatility.

J.E.L classification codes: C15,C32, E32

Keywords:FAVAR, Stochastic Volatility, Uncertainty Shocks, DSGE Model

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