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No. 660: Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?

Duo Qin , Queen Mary University of London
Xinhua He , Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

February 1, 2010

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Abstract

This study provides quarterly time-series estimates of the misalignment in the REER of the Renminbi (RMB). The estimation is based on a commonly used economic approach, but with a wider and more up-to-date coverage of data and a more extensive use of econometric modelling techniques. Our estimates corroborate and explain most of the previous estimates. More importantly, our estimates demonstrate that there is no significant undervaluation in the REER of the RMB though downward misalignment exists in the trilateral rates between the RMB, US$ and euro. The finding refutes the claim that RMB appreciation is the primary and necessary solution to the current global trade imbalance.

J.E.L classification codes: F31, F41

Keywords:Real exchange, rate misalignment

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