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Forecast Summary 2017

Key Highlights:

  • UK RGDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2017. However, the forecast variance is 0.35% across models.

  • UK Inflation is expected to be 2.26% in 2017. However, the forecast variance is 0.97 across models.

  • In comparison, UK Treasury Independent Consensus Forecasts are 0.9% and 3.1% for UK RGDP and Inflation.

Forecasts for the UK Economy 2017

  RGDP Growth Inflation
  Mean Dispersion Mean Dispersion
Autoregr. Moving Average 2.19 [-1.3 - 5.7] 4.19 [-6.4 - 14.6]
TVP Factor Augmented VAR 2.42 [1.1 - 3.8] 1.79 [0 - 3.6]
Bayesian VAR 2.75 [-0.2 - 5.6] 2.37 [-5.7 - 10.3]
Fin. Threshold VAR 3.35 [0.9 - 5.8] 1.75 [-6.1 - 9.6]
Large Bayesian VAR 1.85 [-0.8 - 4.5] 1.50 [-6 - 9]
Fin. Smooth Transition VAR 3.08 [0.1 - 6.1] 2.62 [-10.5 - 15.8]
Threshold VAR 2.68 [-0.7 - 5.5] 1.90 [-6 - 9.8]
Smooth Transition VAR 2.84 [-0.3 - 5.9] 3.39 [-9.8 - 16.4]
DSGE 0.85 [-22.9 - 24.8] 0.04 [-11.7 - 11.9]
TVP VAR 2.28 [1.7 - 2.9] 2.03 [1.1 - 3]
Markov Switching VAR 2.58 [1.5 - 3.7] 3.24 [-1.6 - 8.2]
Mixed Frequency VAR 1.90 [-1.9 - 5.6] 1.36 [-4.8 - 7.6]
Unobserved Component SV 2.13 [1.5 - 2.7] 2.97 [-1.7 - 7.6]
BVAR Common SV 2.46 [0.9 - 4] 2.31 [-1.4 - 6]
BVAR t Disturbances 2.59 [0.6 - 4.5] 2.38 [-3.5 - 8.2]
Average 2.40   2.26  
Highest 3.35   4.19  
Lowest 0.85   0.04  
Variance 0.35   0.97  
Average: Average of forecasts across Cremfi Forecast. Project Models
Dispersion: 10% - 90% Quantiles of Forecast Distribution. TVP: Time Varying Parameter,
DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, VAR: Vector Autoregressive, SV: Stochastic Volatility
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