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Forecast Summary 2017

Key Highlights:

  • UK RGDP is expected to grow by 2.48% in 2017. However, the forecast variance is 0.36% across models.

  • UK Inflation is expected to be 2.21% in 2017. However, the forecast variance is 2.25 across models.

  • In comparison, UK Treasury Independent Consensus Forecasts are 2.2% and 2.9% for UK RGDP and Inflation.

Forecasts for the UK Economy 2017


  RGDP Growth Inflation
  Mean Dispersion Mean Dispersion
Autoregr. Moving Average 2.04 [-1.8 - 6] 4.07 [-7.4 - 15.4]
TVP Factor Augmented VAR 2.60 [-10.6 - 15.6] 1.97 [-9 - 12.9]
Bayesian VAR 2.89 [-0.6 - 6.3] 2.25 [-6 - 10.4]
Fin. Threshold VAR 3.23 [-0.2 - 6.6] 1.84 [-6.3 - 9.8]
Large Bayesian VAR 2.08 [-1.2 - 5.4] 3.00 [-4.8 - 10.6]
Fin. Smooth Transition VAR 2.28 [-0.7 - 5.4] 0.18 [-7.6 - 7.9]
Threshold VAR 3.07 [-0.4 - 6.6] 1.47 [-6.8 - 9.7]
Smooth Transition VAR 3.28 [-0.1 - 6.7] 5.83 [-2.5 - 14.1]
DSGE 1.00 [-23.1 - 25.6] -0.62 [-12.6 - 11.4]
TVP VAR 2.71 [-0.2 - 5.6] 1.66 [-2.7 - 6.1]
Markov Switching VAR 2.63 [0.4 - 4.9] 2.97 [-2.3 - 8.2]
Mixed Frequency VAR 1.92 [-2.1 - 5.9] 2.53 [-4 - 8.9]
Unobserved Component SV 2.04 [-1.8 - 6] 1.61 [-3.9 - 7.3]
BVAR Common SV 2.59 [0.7 - 4.5] 2.36 [-1.1 - 5.9]
BVAR t Disturbances 2.88 [0 - 5.8] 2.06 [-4.1 - 8.2]
Average 2.48   2.21  
Highest 3.28   5.83  
Lowest 1.00   -0.62  
Variance 0.36   2.25  
Average: Average of forecasts across Cremfi Forecast. Project Models
Dispersion: 10% - 90% Quantiles of Forecast Distribution. TVP: Time Varying Parameter,
DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, VAR: Vector Autoregressive, SV: Stochastic Volatility
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