Forecast Summary 2017

UK RGDP is expected to grow by 2.09% in 2017. However, the forecast variance is 0.68% across models.
UK Inflation is expected to be 1.83% in 2017. However, the forecast variance is 1.09 across models.
In comparison, UK Treasury Independent Consensus Forecasts are 2.1% and 2.9% for UK RGDP and Inflation.

Forecasts for the UK Economy 2017

	RGDP Growth		Inflation
	Mean	Dispersion	Mean	Dispersion
Autoregr. Moving Average	2.11	[-1.5 - 5.6]	3.65	[-7.7 - 14.2]
TVP Factor Augmented VAR	2.29	[0 - 4.7]	1.67	[-1.1 - 4.4]
Bayesian VAR	2.84	[-0.1 - 5.8]	2.09	[-6 - 10.1]
Fin. Threshold VAR	2.25	[-1.7 - 5.6]	1.47	[-8 - 10.8]
Large Bayesian VAR	1.67	[-1 - 4.4]	2.59	[-5.4 - 10.4]
Fin. Smooth Transition VAR	1.24	[-1.8 - 4.3]	1.32	[-6.2 - 8.9]
Threshold VAR	2.63	[-1.1 - 5.7]	2.09	[-6.2 - 10.3]
Smooth Transition VAR	3.27	[-0.7 - 7.2]	1.65	[-13.4 - 16.4]
DSGE	1.00	[-23.4 - 25]	-1.07	[-13.2 - 10.9]
TVP VAR	2.28	[1.5 - 3.1]	1.80	[0.7 - 2.8]
Markov Switching VAR	2.59	[1.4 - 3.8]	2.98	[-2.2 - 8]
Mixed Frequency VAR	0.00	[-0.1 - 0.1]	1.98	[-4.3 - 8.2]
Unobserved Component SV	2.06	[0.9 - 3.2]	0.99	[-3.7 - 5.7]
BVAR Common SV	2.52	[0.9 - 4.1]	2.31	[-1.6 - 6.2]
BVAR t Disturbances	2.62	[0.5 - 4.7]	1.90	[-4 - 7.8]
Average	2.09		1.83
Highest	3.27		3.65
Lowest	0.00		-1.07
Variance	0.68		1.09
Average: Average of forecasts across Cremfi Forecast. Project Models
Dispersion: 10% - 90% Quantiles of Forecast Distribution. TVP: Time Varying Parameter,
DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, VAR: Vector Autoregressive, SV: Stochastic Volatility

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